SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051652
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-051845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051652Z - 051845Z
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL ALONG AND N
OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORNING RAOB DATA IN THIS REGION
SHOWED MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6-6.5 C/KM AND A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
VORT MAX SHEARING EWD THROUGH SRN AL...AND BELT OF 40 TO 50 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW S OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
SUGGESTS LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LEFT SPLITS. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL ROTATION MAY
ENHANCE UPDRAFTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
.DIAL.. 06/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
29958434 30648577 31418554 32528310 32228157 30378160
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