SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101733
MOZ000-ARZ000-101830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101733Z - 101830Z
..ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
..BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE SEVERE COVERAGE IN
MO AND THE PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS IN NRN AR.
AT 1720Z...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM 20W FAM TO 20 W UNO... MOVING
ESEWD AT 30 KT DUE TO A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL. HOWEVER ...STORMS
ARE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LINE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
ACROSS NWRN AR AND EXTREME SWRN MO...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH
MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MO
CONVECTION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS...THE WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE SHOULD BE THE PULSE TYPE VARIETY.
.IMY.. 06/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
35739118 35379269 35159426 36149435 36789393 37179267
37689099 37339004 36658984 36438999 35989048
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