SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101917
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NC/PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF SC INTO
EASTERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101917Z - 102115Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND THE
COASTAL/PIEDMONT AREAS OF SC INTO EASTERN GA. EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS INLAND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NC/SC/EASTERN GA. 12Z RAOB FROM
CHARLESTON SC MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS IS SUPPORTIVE OF
MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG...MAXIMIZED ACROSS SC. WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS VIA MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND THE SEABREEZE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
PORTRAYS A RELATIVELY STRONGER BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS STORMS
SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DRY AIR ALOFT ENHANCING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
.GUYER.. 06/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...
34378044 34567906 34227825 33347889 32468024 31638132
32338276 33238295 33778208
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