SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101948
FLZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101948Z - 102145Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
CUMULUS FIELD/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AT MID AFTERNOON VIA AMPLE CONVERGENCE/SEABREEZE WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S F...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z
RAOBS AND A 15Z SPECIAL RAOB FROM CAPE CANAVERAL...WITH MLCAPES AS
HIGH AS 2500-3500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AMIDST A WEAK SHEAR REGIME WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS AS STORMS SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER FROM
YESTERDAY PER OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...PERHAPS TEMPERING THE CONVECTIVE
VIGOR TO A DEGREE AND LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.
.GUYER.. 06/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
29638156 28928099 27738061 27078139 27058183 27408225
28258258 29568269
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