SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141837
TXZ000-142030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141837Z - 142030Z
ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER ECENTRAL/NERN TX AHEAD OF AN
MCV PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH NCENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NCENTRAL TX. SEVERAL TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOP RECENTLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN TX. RECENT VWP FROM FWD
INDICATED AROUND 40 KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 500 MB /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV/. HOWEVER...MUCH WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS /15-20 KTS/ ARE NOTED
FURTHER EAST ON THE PALESTINE PROFILER. AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ONGOING TSTMS AND
SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN ADDITION DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG/...THESE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
.CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
33389637 33649602 33609551 33439491 32829459 32359465
31679459 31259488 30989521 30609557 30439578 30459672
30749701 31449680 32539645 32749647 33149645
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