Thursday, June 14, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153

ACUS11 KWNS 142128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142127
NDZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142127Z - 150000Z

ISOLATED TSTM OVER FAR NWRN ND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN ND
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ND.
ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA BY 00Z.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ISOLATED TSTM OVER BURKE COUNTY. THIS
STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS
FAR WRN ND. RECENT VWP DATA FROM MINOT INDICATED 40 KTS AT 500
MB...WHICH WAS SUPPORTING 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER WRN ND.
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WRN ND
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS. FURTHER EAST...INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION...WEAKENING CINH
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GENERATED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL ND /FROM NEAR BIS TO NEAR DVL/ MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ND TOWARDS 00Z.

.CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48990289 46690386 46320326 46580192 46419925 48979762

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