SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161929
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-162130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NC/SC INTO FAR NORTHEAST GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161929Z - 162130Z
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA INTO MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST GA. A SEVERE WATCH IS
UNLIKELY.
TOWERING CU/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC/FAR WESTERN SC INTO NORTHEAST GA
AT MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS ALREADY
CROSSED THE REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...OVERALL NUMBER OF
STORMS/ORGANIZATION THEREOF WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...A
WARM/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS SUGGEST A SCATTERING OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTHEAST GA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP
TO 30 KT SUGGESTS THAT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/FEW BRIEFLY
ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE /MAINLY ACROSS SC PER GSP WSR-88D
VWP DATA/...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT TO A DEGREE.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ALOFT AND A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN BY
SUNSET.
.GUYER.. 06/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...
37337773 35967628 35047678 34077852 33338127 33748347
35618224 36158083 36737931
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