SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171820
MIZ000-WIZ000-171945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NERN WI...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER
MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171820Z - 171945Z
ONE CONVECTIVE CELL OVER PRICE CNTY WI HAS INTENSIFIED SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE PAST HOUR AND IS EXHIBITING A MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE. THIS
CELL HAD BEEN PART OF A NARROW N/S BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD
20 KT ACROSS NWRN WI. THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW APPEARS TO
TRANSITIONING INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH LEADING STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING INTO LINCOLN CNTY
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS
WI...AND WELL EAST OF THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM ERN SD INTO NWRN MN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK PERTURBATION
IN THE UPPER FLOW APPROACHING THE MN ARROWHEAD THAT MAY BE ENHANCING
THIS CONVECTION...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER NERN WI IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES NWD...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE.
.WEISS.. 06/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...
44528882 44678979 45319024 45919006 46208944 46188839
45978723 45618705 44868734 44568790
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