MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1215

ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-201915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NRN WI/PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201852Z - 201915Z

WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI...WITH A SECOND WATCH BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MOISTURE RETURN NEWD INTO CENTRAL MN TO
THE WRN PART OF THE U.P. OF MI AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/ S
OF THE COLD FRONT BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
WEAKENED THE INHIBITION. THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IS BEING
OBSERVED BY INCREASING CU FIELD FROM WRN U.P OF MI/NRN WI AND WWD
INTO CENTRAL MN. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-55 KT/...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY...INITIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI...
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

.PETERS.. 06/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

46608593 45088704 44588984 44389303 44369588 44729649
45699668 46319622 46529405 46619106 46868837

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