SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202100
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-202200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202100Z - 202200Z
CENTRAL MN CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD...WITH THIS PART OF THE FRONT HAVING WEAKER
CONVERGENCE AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
NRN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL MN WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-50 KT...WITH THESE VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LESS
UPPER FORCING APPEAR TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS THUS FAR FOR MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM MSP AT 19Z INDICATED A MID
LEVEL INVERSION WAS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THIS COMBINED WITH 18Z
RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE MN PART OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21-00Z SUGGESTS WW REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MN.
.PETERS.. 06/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
46089297 45069279 44659337 44609585 44679642 45189687
45839663 46029505
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