SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211943 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND...NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211943Z - 212115Z
CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY INCREASE INVOF COMPACT MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE
ARE UNCERTAIN ATTM...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CROSSING INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD FROM SERN MT. A FEW TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WIBAUX COUNTY MT AND GOLDEN
VALLEY COUNTY ND. S/SE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SEVERAL SURFACE WIND
SHIFTS WERE NOTED OWING TO RATHER ILL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COMPLEX
SURFACE PATTERN AND LENDS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY INTO WHERE/WHEN
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD
MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
.GRAMS.. 06/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
47000212 46330089 45540036 45080041 44660095 44400180
44290292 45080362 46030408 46920460 47670506 47950476
47670336
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