SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222025
NDZ000-MTZ000-222230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222025Z - 222230Z
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR GDV...ALONG A NE/SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NW OF MLS TO NORTH OF MOT. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EAST OF GDV AND NEAR SDY WITH CU FIELD EVIDENT NEWD ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. INITIAL TCU IN EXTREME ERN MCKENZIE
CNTY ND HAS DIMINISHED IN VERTICAL EXTENT SUGGESTING LOCAL
CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ATTM...ALTHOUGH WEAK PERTURBATION IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ERN MT MAY ASSIST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CIN OVER THE AREA. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
.WEISS.. 06/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
46840640 47340519 48220306 48990207 49039999 48309963
46740106 46050309 45980497 46050573
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