MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1254

ACUS11 KWNS 222111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222111
OKZ000-TXZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE INTO NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222111Z - 222345Z

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER NRN OK WITH MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND/HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FARTHER W...THE AREA OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE IS BEING MONITORED FOR GREATER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.

MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER SWRN OK...BUT HAS LEFT BEHIND
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR WITH MESO-HIGH NEAR THE WICHITA
MTNS. FARTHER E...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURGING NWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE INTO NRN OK...WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING OVER NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED. PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALONG WITH NW MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WIND PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...HOWEVER...AREA VWPS AND
PROFILERS SHOW SLY SFC WINDS VEERING TO NLY IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS
CNTRL OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH WEAKER FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
FARTHER N INTO NRN OK AND KS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE OVER N CNTRL OK
WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
ABUNDANT. ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLE SVR AT
TIMES...AND HEAVY RAIN. A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A CU FIELD EXISTS. STRONG
HEATING WILL CONTINUE HERE. VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH
MODEST...WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS GIVEN DEVIANT SWLY STORM MOTIONS.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY.

.JEWELL.. 06/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

33830181 34090193 35290170 36090136 36780082 36950014
36979779 36969700 36679682 36259697 35979742 35549809
35559858 35789876 36049910 36049957 35749993 34730040
33960093

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