SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232143
MNZ000-NDZ000-232315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND INTO NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232143Z - 232315Z
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS REGION AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW N OF ISN WITH ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ARCHING NEWD INTO SERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN MORE EWD
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO N OF HCO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTED THIS WARM FRONT E OF RRT WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING
GENERALLY SWD TO W OF BRD. A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER FAR NERN ND WITHIN A MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
/I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-55 KT/ TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WITH GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOCATED ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE A LARGE ELY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OTHER STORMS MAY WELL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FAR SERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO NRN ND LATER THIS EVENING.
.MEAD.. 06/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
48180229 48940182 49009854 48939664 48929492 48319474
47759498 47749675 47610113
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