SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252045
COZ000-NMZ000-252245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM AND EXTREME SERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252045Z - 252245Z
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP JUST NW OF RATON
NM OVER THE MTNS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED...WITHIN A 50
MILE WIDE ZONE ALONG AND E OF THE MTNS. FARTHER E...DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 50S BUT THIS AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME LONGER
LIVED BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BACK
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE INFLUX IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
STORMS. LARGE T/TD SPREADS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOW AND GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER E...MORE OF
A HAIL THREAT WOULD EXIST GIVEN MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NLY
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 35 KTS.
.JEWELL.. 06/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
37010300 36340321 35360394 34620418 34310443 34280491
34220506 34270518 35030513 35270527 35570548 36570522
37220481 37280459 37310385 37250308
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