SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271949
TXZ000-OKZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX/SOUTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271949Z - 272145Z
IN ADDITION TO A GRADUALLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...A THREAT MAY EXIST FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHEAST OK. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR/SURFACE ANALYSIS...PERSISTENT
TROPICAL LOW REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AT MID AFTERNOON.
WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH/ZONE OF CONFLUENCE
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A SURFACE LOW AND EVIDENT MCV SOUTHWEST OF THE
WACO AREA. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /LIKELY
AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WITH SOUTH EXTENT/ RESIDE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD LOW. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA FROM
DEQUEEN AR/PALESTINE TX AND WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AND FORT SMITH AR DEPICT UP TO 25-35 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY WINDS IN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WITH DERIVED 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 200
M2/S2...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. AS ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THIS
SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF/TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH THE NIGHT VIA A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS AND MODEST STORM
MOTIONS. REGIONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 2.0 INCHES
PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS.
.GUYER.. 06/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
34849716 35159590 34799472 33879451 30809625 30739812
31509839 33179749
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