SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282004
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-282130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SE NY...NRN NJ...SRN CT...LONG
ISLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...462...
VALID 282004Z - 282130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
461...462...CONTINUES.
COLD FRONT STILL SEEMS TO ONLY BE PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT...WIND
SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A SOLIDIFYING SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF 30-40 KT WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PROPAGATION TOWARD
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT THROUGH
WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON...AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST...THROUGH
21-22Z. THEREAFTER...AS STRENGTHENING/CONSOLIDATING SURFACE COLD
POOLS ENCOUNTER MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND GREAT NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90F...BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
SQUALL LINE...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF LONG ISLAND BY 29/00-01Z.
.KERR.. 06/28/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
41107670 41327587 41457509 41667461 41647366 41287283
40927235 40447312 40367472 40537568 40877648
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