SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291918
COZ000-WYZ000-292045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291918Z - 292045Z
A FEW STRONG STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH HAIL...ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY STRONG HEATING AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
LITTLE IS READILY EVIDENT IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH /AROUND 20 KTS
AT 500 MB/. AND...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW THIS LEVEL
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES FOR A
GRADUAL PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN... PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF PUEBLO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS SEEMS A BIT
WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING UP TO 2000 J/KG.
.KERR.. 06/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT...
38100585 38730627 39810634 40850647 41410605 40490528
39910501 39070472 37670433 37120438 37070515
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