SWODY1
SPC AC 042026
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WWD
THRU THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING OVER NRN
MN....
..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS A RESULT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK
LOW IS ALSO OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD THRU SERN IA AND NWRN MO INTO W CENTRAL
KS...WITH A SECONDARY FRONT FROM WRN UPPER MI SWWD THRU CENTRAL SD.
IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS
EXTREME NERN OH INTO SWRN PA AND DELAWARE.
..DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO SRN OH/NERN KY...
AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH ANALYSIS
SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CLUSTERED OVER THE WASHINGTON
D.C./BALTIMORE AREAS...AND FROM COLUMBUS SWWD THRU CINCINNATI. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL
FLOW IS 40-50 KT ACROSS NRN PA PLACING THESE AREAS IN FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...BUT GIVEN 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE
30-35 KT...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH THIS
CORRIDOR AS WELL.
..AREA FROM SRN INDIANA/NRN KY WWD ACROSS MO AND KS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THRU THESE AREAS AS
THERE SEEMS TO BE A DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER S TX AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TROUGH.
IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF MCV CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT JUST SW OF
HLC-HYS MOVING SLOWLY SWWD. GIVEN THE REMNANT HUMIDITY FROM
PREVIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE FROM NWRN OK ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL WHERE ANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG. VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE PRESENT THROUGH THESE AREAS WITH VALUES AROUND 7.5C/KM WITH RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LAYER OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN 800 AND 500 MB.
THUS...WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND
HAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..NRN MN INTO NWRN WI...
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER S
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SEWD
INTO NWRN WI BETWEEN 05/03Z AND 05/06Z. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z AROUND BJI-DLH-HYR
VICINITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN WITH THE THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
.MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2007
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