SWODY1
SPC AC 092005
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE SRN
GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NRN
PLAINS....
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM W
CENTRAL QUEBEC SWWD THRU NERN LWR MI INTO SERN WI AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD FROM NERN NY INTO E CENTRAL MA. NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES EXTEND SWWD FROM S CENTRAL WI THRU
IA INTO CENTRAL KS...AND FROM SWRN KS SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES SEWD FROM SERN ALBERTA INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME A CLOSED/MID/UPPER LOW OVER SERN MANITOBA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX/EXIT REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS NERN MT INTO W CENTRAL MN TONIGHT.
..SRN GREAT LAKES INTO N AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE POOLED ACROSS NY STATE INTO
VT/NH/MA AND CT. THIS HAS LED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THIS REGION WHERE MLCAPES RANGES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NY
TO 1000 J/KG IN CENTRAL MA. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD
TOWARDS LK ONTARIO ATTM AND WILL BE WORKING ON THIS INSTABILITY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL.
..NORTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT WITH NEWER
ACTIVITY OVER SASKATCHEWAN JUST N OF MT BORDER. AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. ENVIRONMENT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 50-55
KT. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS
VORTICITY MAX/DEEPENING TROUGH MOVE SEWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY
THIS EVENING.
..SRN PLAINS...
LATEST RUC MODEL ECHOES PREVIOUS GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT OF
MCS OVER KS/OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH MLCAPES JUST
ABOVE 2600J/KG AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST OVER 3200
J/KG TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING...BEST BET WOULD FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
.MCCARTHY.. 07/09/2007
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