SWODY1
SPC AC 010051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER CNTRL ND...
..ND...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER N OF MOT...THROUGH MOT TO W OF
BIS AND INTO NWRN SD...SW OF Y22. MODIFICATION OF 00Z BIS SOUNDING
FOR A MORE MOIST BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER /SIMILAR TO DVL
AND JMS SURFACE CONDITIONS/ YIELDS AN MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...CURRENT
MINOT AFB VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 35-40
KT IN LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
GIVEN THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS /SOME PERHAPS
EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING TO STRONG
EVAPORATION COOLING POTENTIAL /DCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ AS
WELL AS SOME HAIL. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 04-05Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO SLOWLY COOL AND
STABILIZE.
..AZ...
AIR MASS OVER WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE STATE REMAINS RELATIVELY HOT AND
MOIST THIS EVENING WITH 00Z SOUNDING FROM THE PHX AREA INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ AND A BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND 760 MB. WHILE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE WSWWD INTO
RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
.MEAD.. 08/01/2007
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