Sunday, July 22, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN
IA/FAR WRN WI...

..PARTS OF MN/WRN WI/NRN IA AND VICINITY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER W CENTRAL/NWRN WI AND INTO
EXTREME SERN MN...NEAR REMNANT MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM --
ON THE VERY ERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. FURTHER W AND NW WHERE
EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS...AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED.

WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE UVV INDICATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MN APPEARS INCREASINGLY LESS
LIKELY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WRN WI...IN THE EVENT THAT OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING STORMS
IN THIS AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD STORM INITIATION.
ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP W OF ONGOING ACTIVITY -- WITHIN THE
FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE/SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- WOULD POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL.

..AZ...
STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ACROSS AZ OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...AND WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
WRN AZ AND MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...SETUP APPEARS LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN VERY
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.

.GOSS.. 07/23/2007

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