SWODY1
SPC AC 250534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN SD/MUCH OF ND...
..SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS WRN U.S. RIDGE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE WRN HALF OF CANADA...AND THE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION RETROGRADES A BIT FURTHER W.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND E OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE SRN CONUS.
..NRN PLAINS...
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BENEATH PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. EVENTUALLY...COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD
EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW FORECAST FROM ERN WY NEWD ACROSS SD
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION. THUS -- WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK/15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM NWRN SD INTO ND.
..OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SRN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL. WHILE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS -- AIDED
BY 20 TO 30 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW -- MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE WEAK FLOW
SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LARGER
SCALE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.GOSS/LEVIT.. 07/25/2007
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