DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300040
SWODY1
SPC AC 300038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2007

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..AZ...

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM N OF IGM TO INW TO SOW NE OF TUS WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK...00Z TUS SOUNDING
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MODEST
ENELY FLOW ABOVE 6 KM AGL. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SWWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
EVENING.

..GA...

00Z CHS/TLH SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J KG/ THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF TSTMS ONGOING
OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z. THEREAFTER...STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE.

..SRN PA TO VA...

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF 0030Z FROM S-CNTRL PA
INTO CNTRL/ERN VA WITHIN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WITH STORMS LIKELY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...SOME THREAT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AND/OR CELL MERGERS.

.MEAD.. 07/30/2007

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