SWODY1
SPC AC 310051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2007
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MT...
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN
BITTERROOTS EWD INTO CNTRL MT WITHIN A RELATIVELY HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WAS WELL SAMPLED BY 00Z GREAT FALLS
SOUNDING. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY....FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH REGION COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN
ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
..LOWER CO VALLEY...
AIR MASS FROM SRN NV SWD THROUGH SERN CA/SWRN AZ REMAINS QUITE HOT
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES OF 98-108F AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DRA SOUNDING A SLIGHTLY MORE
REPRESENTATIVE SURFACE DEWPOINT /MID 50S/ YIELDS A SBCAPE OF AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ONGOING STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP WWD/SWWD
THROUGH WRN/SRN AZ INTO SRN NV AND SERN CA.
.MEAD.. 07/31/2007
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