SWODY2
SPC AC 300552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW OVER FAR WRN TX AND NRN NM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY WSWWD. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING SRN MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER MT AND ND AS
THIS FEATURE ADVANCES EWD. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEND THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO ERN MT BY TUESDAY
EVENING...REACHING ND LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
..CNTRL AND ERN MT THROUGH NRN ND...
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN
RETURNING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY AS SLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING WLY
FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THERMAL AXIS/EML
SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OF ERN MT AND ND.
WHILE THE EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION...IT
WILL ALSO SERVE TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM BELOW 1000
J/KG OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER ND WHERE RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SEWD INTO NRN AND NERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT AND NRN WY AND SPREAD NEWD
INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OF ERN MT. PRESENCE OF CAP AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA
SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN ND OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
WILL REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION WITH WIND PROFILES GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..SRN AZ...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN ELY DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES OVER AZ. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MAY LIMIT LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY
AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
.DIAL.. 07/30/2007
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