SWOD48
SPC AC 250859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES SATURDAY...SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION IN WEAKER TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST...AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DIG WITHIN WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. AND...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES PLATEAU REGION...ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE NATION.
THEREAFTER...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES AGAIN BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
SHIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED. THESE EVENTS
WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE...PERHAPS
THROUGH A WEAKER CYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF STATES. AND...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS
EXTENDED RANGE IS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK AREAS.
.KERR.. 07/25/2007
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