SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022259
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD...MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022259Z - 030030Z
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS...ACROSS THE RED RIVER...TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THIS
REGION INCLUDES OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SPREADING SEWD
ACROSS SRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND
THERMAL/INVERTED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD NEWD
INTO NWRN MN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS NEUTRAL
ATTM. BUT...ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY BE SPREADING EWD FROM THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING AND WEAK INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION...POTENTIAL SHOULD
EXIST FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED BOUNDARY ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN SD. HOWEVER...RECENT ISOLATED BUT PERSISTENT STORM ACROSS
NCNTRL MN ALSO SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH 30-40KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONVECTION INCREASES AS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
.CARBIN.. 07/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
43809832 43749962 44390076 45830035 47239942 48179707
48709483 48359371 47379370 45759404 44249582
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