Tuesday, July 3, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1369

ACUS11 KWNS 032036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032036
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB...NW IA...EXTREME SE SD...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032036Z - 032200Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
FROM NE NEB INTO SE SD/NW IA/SW MN. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A WW BY ROUGHLY 22-23Z.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE NEB INTO EXTREME SE SD/NW IA. CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...AN MCV NOW LOCATED NEAR HURON
WILL MOVE ESEWD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH THE MCV AND STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS SOME
STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY 22-23Z.

.THOMPSON.. 07/03/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

43629643 43979552 43939473 43569410 43189414 42879453
42559519 41969680 41949767 42399818 42709790

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