SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032132
WIZ000-032230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032132Z - 032230Z
COORDINATION ON A NEW WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WI IS ONGOING. PARTS OF
ECNTRL AND SERN WI MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH AS WEAKLY
ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY ACROSS WCNTRL WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECENT HAIL AND WIND REPORTS OCCURRING
WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WI TO LAKE
MICHIGAN...WAS CURRENTLY LESS UNSTABLE THAN POINTS WEST...GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID 70S IN RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION WAS ALSO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH VWP AND RUC DATA
INDICATING VECTOR SHEAR OF ABOUT 20-25KT. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE FURTHER AS STRONGER FLOW COINCIDENT WITH
THE MCS/MCV SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR/SATELLITE...AND TIME OF DAY...A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
.CARBIN.. 07/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
43348796 42948846 43509018 44949015 45168980 44968870
44798833 44248775 43828778
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