Friday, July 6, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

ACUS11 KWNS 061956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061956
ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-062230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NV...EXTREME NERN CA AND CNTRL/ERN ORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061956Z - 062230Z

WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...MOST CONCENTRATED REGION OF
POTENTIAL ISOLD SVR MICROBURSTS AND DRY TSTMS WILL EXIST FROM NWRN
NV/NERN CA INTO CNTRL/ERN ORE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
LIKELY...BUT CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY WILL INCREASE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NWD
JUST N OF THE BAY AREA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD
AS EVIDENT IN INCREASING PWAT VALUES NWD ALONG/E OF A THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS WRN ORE/WA. THOUGH MID-CLOUD DEBRIS HAS TEMPERED DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...SUFFICIENT INSOLATION IS THERE TO BOOST
BUOYANCY/THERMALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND CBS HAVE FORMED ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA CREST NWD INTO SCNTRL ORE. AS THE WAVE TRANSLATES
NWD...TSTMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP NWD THROUGHOUT NWRN NV INTO CNTRL
ORE...PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTN. VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
/FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES/ AND CONTRIBUTE TO
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS THAT MAY PRODUCE SVR/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

.RACY.. 07/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

38771999 39772000 41342036 41812098 43702139 45901866
45961753 45001755 42681784 37901850

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