SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072138
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-072245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072138Z - 072245Z
ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DRY
MICROBURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY ATTM.
AS OF 2130Z...AN ISOLATED TSTM HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SERN
PERKINS/NRN ZIEBACH COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ARCING SWWD FROM
A MESOLOW NEAR MBG. A HOT/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM 105 TO 110 AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S. DESPITE DEW POINTS BEING HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
SD BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH /40S AND 50S/...DCAPES OF 1500
TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH THE RAPID CITY VAD PROFILER DEPICTS
WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR /AROUND 15 KTS/...SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO THE N SHOULD SUPPORT MORE LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS IN NWRN SD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.GRAMS.. 07/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...
43820433 45090361 46000236 46240097 45760041 45100167
43970269 43020332 42840413
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