SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080242
MNZ000-080415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 080242Z - 080415Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE. A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT IN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN MANITOBA ATTM.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY WARM...THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
WARM MID-LEVELS ALLOWING ISOLATED STORM INITIATION IN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN 00Z SOUNDING
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS LATE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY
INCREASE WITH ORGANIZED PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.
.BROYLES.. 07/08/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
48239308 48229577 48289670 48599697 48959674 49059572
49009440 48889275
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