SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082212
MIZ000-082315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 082212Z - 082315Z
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 492...AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN
LOWER MI WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS OVER NRN WI/CNTRL UPPER MI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING...NECESSITATING A SEVERE TSTM ISSUANCE BY 23Z.
AS OF 2205Z...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM E-CNTRL MN E/NEWD THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI. WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW....THESE TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN LOWER MI
TOWARDS 02Z. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW
FROM LKS MI AND HURON HAVE STABILIZED THE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS ERN
UPPER MI...A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EXIST GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER S ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...NEARLY
CLOUD FREE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE /PER
LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT
IN SOME STABILIZATION...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD STILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION OVER NRN WI.
.GRAMS.. 07/08/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...
46728469 45688322 44578270 43788394 43878577 44278652
45418632 46488543
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