SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102025
TXZ000-OKZ000-102230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102025Z - 102230Z
WEAK FRONTAL SURGE CONTINUES SWD THROUGH OK...WITH SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER. DESPITE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONTINUED HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY INITIALLY OVER SERN OK BUT MOVING
INTO NERN TX WITH SSELY STORM MOTIONS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR
ALREADY SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING AS OF 2030Z. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL/WARM ADVECTION SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS SLOW MOVING
STORMS WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOCALIZED FAVORABLE SHEAR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HIGH QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/LOW
LCLS.
.JEWELL.. 07/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
32809660 33359735 34069785 34899724 35119634 34859558
33769521 32889539
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