SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122041
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122041Z - 122245Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING FROM
WRN TX...WRN OK AND SWRN KS. BEST SEVERE THREAT MAY BE OVER SWRN KS
AND PARTS OF WRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER A PORTION OF THIS AREA.
A QUASISTATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TX AND OK
BORDER NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE OK PANHANDLE NWWD INTO SERN CO.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WITH 1500 TO 2500
J/KG MLCAPE FROM SWRN OK NWWD THROUGH SWRN KS. A FEW STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS OVER WRN TX AND EXTREME ERN CNTRL NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN MCV. CUMULUS IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG NWRN EXTENTION OF BOUNDARY
ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO. THE MCV WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER TX ARE S OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
FARTHER NE OVER WRN OK INTO SWRN KS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
STRONGER AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHERE POST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FLOW IS STILL BACKED TO SELY BENEATH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING TEMPORARY
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MCV MOVING THROUGH ERN OK. STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO MAY SPREAD INTO SWRN KS WHERE A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER SWRN KS AND WRN OK AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE
BOUNDARY.
.DIAL.. 07/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...
34180023 34710131 35700228 36880239 37630167 37720101
37529972 36969927 35739924 34709916 34169966
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