SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122155
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-122330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO...EXTREME SRN NEB AND NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122155Z - 122330Z
MESSY SITUATION HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN.
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OVER NEB AND IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION OF WY/CO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE KS BORDER AND
INTO NERN CO AT 22Z. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM OK INTO WRN
KS...BUT DROPS OFF RAPIDLY INTO ERN KS WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS. THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR NEW TSTMS. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
SCNTRL/SWRN NEB INTO NCNTRL/NWRN KS AND FARTHER W ACROSS ECNTRL CO.
SRN MOST EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN FOR THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY OWING TO MID-HIGH LEVEL BLOW-OFF FROM CO STORMS IMPEDING
STRONG INSOLATION AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING MCV OVER OK. BUT...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF WW 513 WHERE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS A RESULT...PARTS OF THE REGION ARE
BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW.
.RACY.. 07/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
38800414 39460431 40030398 40070264 40230118 40229735
39009732 38589879 38460345
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