Thursday, July 12, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1462

ACUS11 KWNS 122234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122234
ORZ000-WAZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OREGON INTO SRN WA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122234Z - 122330Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY.

STORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE CNTRL OREGON CASCADES WITHIN ZONE OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED
HEATING AND LIFT WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO REFORM IN
MUCH THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF
30-40 KTS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS EXHIBITING
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES WITH MAXIMUM HAIL DIAMETERS UP TO
1.00-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT MOVE IN A N OR JUST E OF N
DIRECTION WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

.JEWELL.. 07/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...

42382078 43982181 45532189 46332184 46542123 46412016
45871990 44191902 43151887 42321923 42071970 42032038

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