MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471

ACUS11 KWNS 132055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132055
MNZ000-NDZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132055Z - 132300Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND
AND NORTHWEST MN. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMA
ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE FEATURES CUMULUS FIELD STEADILY
DEEPENING...INCLUDING ONE STRONG STORM ALREADY NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST ND/CANADIAN BORDER AS OF 2045Z. IN WAKE OF EARLIER WARM
FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEADILY WARMED/MOISTENED ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 80S F WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. MODIFIED 12Z
CANADIAN RAOB FROM WLO SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW UNCAPPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND...WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG.

STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND/FAR
NORTHWEST MN. AIDED BY THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...INCREASINGLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/AMPLE VEERING MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.GUYER.. 07/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

49369944 49129675 48519434 47369381 45799473 46229736
47850003 48600028

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