Saturday, July 14, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473

ACUS11 KWNS 142028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142027
KSZ000-OKZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142027Z - 142230Z

STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS THEY
DEVELOP SWD THROUGH KS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY POTENTIAL SPARSE STORM COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH
NERN...N CNTRL AND SWRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 90S AND 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING
IN MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWS NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 20 TO 30 KT IN THE 700 TO 400 MB
LAYER AND LIGHT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
SRN KS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE 50S RESULTING IN 40 C TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...WEAK CAP AND DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS...BUT MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. FORCING THROUGH A
DEEPER LAYER APPEARS MODEST... AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
REMAIN ISOLATED. GIVEN THE LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND AT LEAST MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DIAL.. 07/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38559927 39189764 39559656 39259581 38419605 37879710
36520103 37220157

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