SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142056
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-142300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF ID/SOUTHWEST MT INTO NORTHWEST WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142056Z - 142300Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ID/SOUTHWEST MT MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE VICINITY INTO
WESTERN WY INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE PARK. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CUMULUS/CBS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL ID/SOUTHWEST MT MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE VICINITY.
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER UT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND POSSIBLY ONE
OR MORE SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST CENTRAL ID INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MT/NORTHWEST WY.
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS AND GPS DERIVED DATA SUGGEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 0.75 INCH WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. WHILE OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...MODERATE HIGHER
LEVEL FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A
WARM/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 80S/90S F TEMPERATURES COMMON WILL
FAVOR STRONG GUST WIND POTENTIAL...WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
.GUYER.. 07/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
46581452 47391227 46870991 45670925 44180875 43120906
43150997 44181196 44391368 45161519 45461533 46041521
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