SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152054
MNZ000-NDZ000-152300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152054Z - 152300Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED TO STEADILY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR WESTERN MN. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS 22Z-23Z.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS FIELD ALONG A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ROUGHLY
ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE IN
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF AN
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.
AS SAMPLED BY WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM GRAND FORKS...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT /45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ WILL FAVOR ROTATING
STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST. EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS AND ONE OR MORE SMALL
MCS/S IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR/JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.
.GUYER.. 07/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
49110022 48619843 48079737 47329637 46159653 46039816
46689965 47840158 48850207
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