SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152210
MTZ000-160015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152210Z - 160015Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL MT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CUMULUS/INCREASING CBS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MT HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO A HOT AMBIENT
AIRMASS...PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE NOTED TO BE 110-130 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PER 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL RAOBS...AND GPS-DERIVED DATA
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM
MODE SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...RELATIVELY STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
SUSTENANCE/POSSIBLE MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS...STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS
EVOLVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL MT HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER
100S F. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
.GUYER.. 07/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
48770814 47510831 45870968 45191087 45111302 46211380
47421299 48861277 49081088
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