SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152245
AZZ000-160015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152245Z - 160015Z
FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BENEATH 10-20 KT EASTERLY 500 MB WINDS... IS
SUPPORTING A GRADUAL PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...TOWARD THE LOWER
DESERTS. AND...BY 16/01-03Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AND TUCSON AREAS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS BECOME DEEPLY MIXED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. LOW MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE LIMITING CAPE...MINIMIZING HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS THAT COULD REACH THE
SURFACE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
.KERR.. 07/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
34741297 34961222 33931066 33350981 32151013 32331113
33681278
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