Tuesday, July 17, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1511

ACUS11 KWNS 172110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172110
MTZ000-IDZ000-172215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...NRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172110Z - 172215Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS ERN ORE INTO WRN ID. AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX...THE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /LESS THAN 30 KTS/
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

.CROSBIE.. 07/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...

48891536 48441660 46821616 45531548 45191502 45081447
44751356 45251149 45331137 48981176

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