SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182042
WIZ000-MNZ000-182145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182042Z - 182145Z
STRONG STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF ERN MN AND WRN WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A
WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AND WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
STRONG STORMS HAVE ERUPTED RAPIDLY ALONG WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY
SETTLING SWD ACROSS HENNEPIN AND DAKOTA COUNTIES IN MN...AS WELL AS
DUNN COUNTY IN WRN WI. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ASCENT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE MCV DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS
IA ATTM...AS WELL AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SPREADING SEWD FROM NRN MN/WI. ABOUT
30-35KT OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK/VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND A WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
.CARBIN.. 07/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
44359049 43839049 43879222 44589374 45209382 45459295
45289162 45099049
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