SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182115
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-182345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NCENTRAL/NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182115Z - 182345Z
WW IS LIKELY OVER THE AREA BY 00Z...AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND 00Z.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE NEB/SD
BORDER FROM NEAR VTN TO SOUTH OF YKN. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 1-3 HRS/
WILL REMAIN LACK OF WELL DEFINED UPPER/LOW LVL FORCING FEATURES AND
REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE
INCREASES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS IT IMPINGES ON CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR NCENTRAL/NERN NEB. ADDITIONAL
SVR THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS TSTM COMPLEX OVER SWRN SD MOVES ESEWD
THROUGH SCENTRAL SD/NCENTRAL NEB LATER THIS EVENING /AFTER 01Z/.
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. DMGG
WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX LATER THIS EVENING.
.CROSBIE.. 07/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
42939655 43729656 43909765 43709944 43129966 42699973
42599954 42489885 42319772 42309722 42429660 42549632
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