SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192044
NMZ000-AZZ000-192245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN AZ AND FAR SWRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192044Z - 192245Z
SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM OF
ECENTRAL AZ/WCENTRAL NM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERT
REGION OF SERN AZ/SCENTRAL AZ AND FAR SWRN NM TOWARDS 00Z.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SERN AZ /NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER/ BY 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z.
LATEST VISIBLE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVER THE HIGH DESERTS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MODEST INHIBITION /AROUND
100-125 J/KG/ STILL EXISTS OVER LOWER TERRAIN. THUS A FEW MORE HOURS
OF HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE TSTMS CAN PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER VORT LOBE OVER
SCENTRAL NM /NEAR ELP/ CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF
SERN AZ. MODEST MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS /20-25 KTS/ COUPLED WITH THIS
APPROACHING VORT LOBE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AND A
GREATER DMGG WIND THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SCENTRAL AZ AFTER
00Z. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
.CROSBIE.. 07/19/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
31801253 32841251 33411175 33881099 33880999 33600938
33440916 33260886 33130879 32700863 32380860 31940859
31530891 31360932 31301105
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