Thursday, July 19, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1545

ACUS11 KWNS 192140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192140
KSZ000-COZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CENTRAL/SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192140Z - 200015Z

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN
KS INTO ECENTRAL KS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT CU DEVELOPING ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
GARDEN CITY ENEWD TO NEAR HAYS AND THE EWD ALONG I-70 TO JUST SOUTH
OF TOPEKA. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HOWEVER...WEAKENING CINH
COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /MAXIMIZED INVOF
OF THE LOW IN SWRN KS AND WHERE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR SLN/ SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA BY 23Z. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS /15 KTS OR LESS/ WILL
SUPPORT A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST T/TD SPREADS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS GIVE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN AN HOUR AFTER SUNSET.

.CROSBIE.. 07/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

39209844 39099932 38880027 38670102 38300155 37370215
37120203 37010181 37030146 37220076 37450025 37809955
38009890 38099789 38089708 37939605 37809514 38279465
38659473 39159720

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