SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230551
IAZ000-230745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 230551Z - 230745Z
A SMALL MCS THAT WAS BORNE OUT OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE UPR MS VLY
HAS BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NERN
IA. PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ALONG WRN SIDES OF THE STORM
COMPLEX WHERE UNSTABLE PARCELS WERE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.
06Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE COLUMN
BELOW THE CLOUD BASES WAS LOW...INDICATING THAT HEAVIER PCPN CORES
MAY AUGMENT WIND PRODUCTION AS ALREADY EVIDENCED BY THE 54 KT GUST
AT KALO. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD...LOCAL DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM AS THE COMPLEX PROPAGATES INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL
IA...THOUGH RECENT TENDENCIES FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS TO RACE WELL
AHEAD OF THE STORMS MAY BE A TELL-TALE SIGN THAT THE SVR WIND
POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLD. IN THIS SITUATION...NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO
DEVELOP ATOP THE DEEPENING COLD POOL WITH THE NEAR SFC STABILITY
DECREASING THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK SFC WIND INFLOW...THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNBALANCED FOR THE DOWNDRAFT/UPDRAFT INTERFACE TO REMAIN
JUXTAPOSED.
LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WAS MOVING 20/24 KTS AND WILL REACH KDSM AND
POINTS EAST ALONG I-80 BY 07-0730Z AND THE CHARITON OTTUMWA REGIONS
BY 08-09Z. ATTM...EXPECT THAT THE WIND THREATS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY ISOLD TO PRECLUDE A NIGHTTIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
.RACY.. 07/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
41169492 43209357 43459274 43469263 42329301 41939195
41449218 40689260 40699320 40709471
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